Taking the train or bus instead of the plane: it does make a big difference

The TML study compares the climate impact of a passenger travelling by plane, train and long-distance bus for 25 current flight destinations from Belgium (from three Belgian airports). It is the first time this has been calculated in such detail for our country. Also for the first time, we see an indication of the reduction in CO₂ emissions we could get if all air travellers for these destinations switched to bus or train. 

The analysis takes into account both the exhaust emissions during the flight or trip and the emissions associated with the production, transmission and distribution of fuels and electricity. Emissions thus count "from source to tank".

The Brussels-Paris flight is an example of a short-haul flight. For this destination, emissions per passenger by plane are 5 times higher than by bus, and almost 9 times higher than by train. The Brussels-Vienna flight is an example of a somewhat longer-distance flight. But even there, the climate impact of a plane trip is 4 times higher than travelling by bus. Compared to the (night) train to Vienna, the climate impact of the plane is 7 times higher.

The problem grows

In 2019, aviation accounted for 148 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Compared to 1990, these emissions more than doubled (up more than 120%), a much stronger growth than the European transport sector in general. 

Without additional measures, CO₂ emissions will double or even triple by 2050 compared to 2015, according to estimates by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Moreover, aviation is responsible for significant NOx emissions and contributes to local nuisances and health problems.

The solution: fly less and invest in rail

If all air travellers were to switch to bus or train for the various destinations, CO₂ emissions drop dramatically (see figure). With a switch to bus, the maximum annual reduction potential in 2019 is around 1.06 million tonnes of CO₂ and with a switch to train around 1.13 million tonnes of CO₂. 

The potential is huge. At the same time, this run-through quickly shows that hefty investments are needed to realise it: the number of additional trains that would be needed to carry all air passengers for the 25 destinations studied is about 24,400 per year. For buses, it is about 157,700 per year.

The policy should focus on rail as the backbone of a multimodal mobility system so that combining rail with other modes of transport becomes much easier. By 2040, rail's market share in passenger transport should roughly double, to 15 per cent.

The hidden costs of air travel, which today are passed on to society and the environment, should then be passed on again in the air ticket, via a national ticket tax and through a tax on air freight. This will create a fairer playing field for train and bus. The current aviation privileges need to be scrapped.

Policy should also work on the supply side to reduce the number of flights. This can be done, for instance, by abolishing intra-European flights where alternative rail lines exist or stopping the expansion of airport infrastructure and capacity. 

To structurally implement these and other policies, emissions from the aviation sector should be included in national climate plans, combined with a roadmap for zero emissions well before 2050. 

The mobility of the future will drastically reduce its negative impact on climate and environment. At the crossroads of Europe, Belgium cannot be left behind in that shift. The government must ensure that citizens' choice of sustainable alternatives is logic itself. 

Discover all the results of the study in the map below:

The TML study (February 2022)